Mohamed Ibrahim’s Blog

An article appeared on the wall street journal online, suggesting that the housing troubles are over. There’s some interesting analysis over there that shows why it is over. Another article appeared yesterday also on WSJ, that shows more charts suggesting that the housing problems are over. This one shows a chart showing that the housing market reached the same bottom from which the housing market bounced up every time. Basically, it applies a similar theory to the support and resistance ideas used in the stock market.

However, there’s a couple of things that tells me we might still go in the flat bottom till the end of 2009. First Fannie Mae just expected prices to further drop. The chart in the second WSJ shows the market bouncing up after a recession, and we’re not in a technical recession yet.

I will update the chart that I used to analyze my local market, and will share it on the weblog. I agree that we are in the market bottom, but I think this bottom will be little bit more flat than just April of 2008.

Reports have been going around today sourcing from NAR that the revised figures of last year existing home sales is down 0.49% from last year, which puts us at a 9-year low. The current market has been described as “the worst downturn since the Great Depression of the 1930s”. No one sees a fast turnaround here. In my previous post, I was anticipating that we’re now in a local minimum, and will see a peak of light by the end of the year.

I think now we will be very very focused on the Fed’s statement in front of congress on Wednesday and Thursday, plus the election process and how the three possible presidents plan to solve this mess.

In an earlier post, I said that I will update my real estate analysis chart.

(more…)

Toll brothers reported that they expect further revenue decline in 2008 first quarter. I heard yesterday on WTOP news, that they even expect the market to go into worse conditions. I’m on the contrary seeing signs of things getting better than at least the previous quarter. I’m not saying that we’re getting out of the pit yet, but at least during the previous week I’ve been getting calls, email requests and contacts through the website from people looking to buy, in a rate higher than the last quarter.

(more…)

This is an updated chart to the posts I had made earlier. At that time I was hoping that the curve pointing up is pointing to a recovering real estate market, but actually it looks like there are minor cycles repeating and we’re still going down. Worse, those minor cycles seem to repeat every two years - and now we are in a minor cycle trough.

(more…)

What is the homestead tax credit?

Exactly like it sounds, it’s a credit you get back. Why would the state do so? In my opinion, they’re trying to limit the speed by which tax assessments are growing relative to the speed by which home prices grew in the past five years, resulting in higher tax rate for residents. It is mainly targeted to benefit home owners who live in those residents.

(more…)